#30: The Invisible Advantage

Making decisions in iGaming isn't like playing slots. You can't rely on chance when you're deploying capital, entering markets, or building products. Yet for years, that's exactly what I did - making choices based on gut feel and industry "best practices."

Then I discovered mental models, and everything changed. These powerful thinking tools helped me cut through the noise and see opportunities others missed. They're the frameworks that guide my investments, shape my strategies, and help me spot the next big industry shifts before they happen.

Today, I'll share the eight mental models that have transformed how I make decisions in iGaming. They're not just theoretical concepts - they're battle-tested tools that have helped me build and scale multiple successful businesses in our industry.

8 Mental Models That Guide My Decision-Making

#1: Reciprocity

Quick Maths tells me I’ve written in the region of 200k words on iGaming in the past few years, and I give them away for free. Why? Because reciprocity is the most powerful force in business. When you give value first, the world repays you tenfold.

Look at how this plays out in our industry. The affiliates focused solely on transactional customer acquisition strategies? They're struggling. But brands like that focus on giving value through superior content and genuine community building? They're thriving.

I've seen this firsthand. Every insight I've shared has returned to me as an investment opportunity, a business partnership, or deeper industry relationships. At conferences, while others are rushing to pitch their products, I'm focused on helping solve problems. Those conversations inevitably lead to bigger opportunities.

But here's the catch - reciprocity only works when it's genuine. The moment you give with the expectation of return, you've already lost. Give because you genuinely want to help and trust that the returns will come in unexpected ways.

#2: Velocity

In iGaming, money loves speed. But velocity isn't just about moving fast - it's about moving fast in the right direction. Think of it like this: a car driving at high speed in circles goes nowhere, while a slow walk in the right direction eventually crosses continents.

I see this play out constantly in market entries. Some operators rush in with massive marketing budgets but no clear direction. Others, like the example I covered in my Stake analysis, move deliberately but purposefully, building momentum in the right places.

The key is understanding both components of velocity: speed and direction. Speed comes from efficient execution, quick decision-making, and rapid iteration. Direction comes from clear strategy, market understanding, and strong positioning. You need both. Without speed, opportunities pass you by. Without direction, you waste resources.

#3: First Principles Thinking

When everyone in iGaming is following the same playbook, first principles thinking is your secret weapon. Instead of asking, "What is everyone else doing?", you ask "What fundamental truth am I absolutely certain about?"

Too many businesses have a tactical focus, “which channel is delivering the best results?” is their core question. But if you change to first principles thinking, you can use those fundamental truths to build tactics that are even more effective.

This approach has guided every major success I've had. When I invested in Blask, I didn't look at what other analytics companies were doing. Instead, I broke down the fundamental problem: operators needed better data to make decisions. Everything else - the technology, the delivery method, the business model - was built up from that truth.

The beauty of first principles thinking is that it helps you see opportunities others miss. While competitors are copying each other's features or fighting over the same market segments, you're building something fundamentally different and better.

#4: Surface Area

Think of your business like a vessel in the ocean. Your surface area is every point where you touch the market - your product, marketing, brand, and partnerships. The more surface area you have, the more opportunities you can capture. But it also means more points of vulnerability.

I've watched countless operators try to minimise their surface area, focusing on a single channel or market. They see it as "focusing," but really, they're limiting their potential. Meanwhile, businesses like Betano deliberately increase their surface area through strategic brand partnerships, diverse marketing channels, and calculated market entries.

But here's what most miss: surface area isn't just about being everywhere. It's about being everywhere strategically. Each point of contact should reinforce your others. Your brand partnerships should amplify your marketing. Your product should strengthen your positioning.

#5: Creative Destruction

Creative destruction is the process where new innovations constantly replace the old, driving progress while destroying what came before. It's like a forest fire that, while destructive, creates the conditions for new growth.

I feel like our industry is slow to react to creative destruction. The key is to be adaptive and not be bonded to a way of operating that worked before. Otherwise, you’re at serious threat of falling victim to creative destruction.

I've learned to see creative destruction not as a threat, but as an opportunity. With consumer behaviours changing, I think the old affiliate model is on its last legs, and the opportunity to build “affiliate 2.0” products is taking a lot of my focus. But others look at their stock of thousands of transactional templatised websites, so fear the transition.

This mental model is core to every decision I make. I'm always asking: What's being destroyed? What's being created? And most importantly - how can we position ourselves on the right side of that equation?

#6: Feedback Loops

Success in iGaming isn't linear - it's cyclical. Every action creates reactions that either amplify or diminish your next move. Understanding these feedback loops is crucial for making better decisions.

Take brand building. Strong brands retain players better, which means more revenue. More revenue means they can invest in better products, bigger sponsorships, and more marketing. This leads to even more players, creating a virtuous cycle. It's why operators like bet365 seem to get stronger every year while weaker brands struggle to break through - they've reached a scale where their success compounds itself.

I use this model constantly in my businesses. At Blask, we focused on creating positive feedback loops between our product, our data, and our customers. Better data leads to better insights, which attracts more customers and generates more data. Understanding these loops helps you identify where to focus your efforts for maximum impact.

#7: Scale

Scale isn't just about getting bigger - it's about understanding how things change when they get bigger. What works for a small operator often breaks completely when they try to scale up. I've seen this repeatedly in our industry, particularly with operators entering new markets.

Take payment processing. At small scale, manual reviews and basic fraud detection might work fine. But scale that up 100x, and suddenly you need sophisticated systems and teams. Or consider customer support - what worked for 100 customers becomes impossible with 10,000. The problems don't just get bigger; they fundamentally change.

This mental model has saved me from countless mistakes. Before any major decision, I ask: "How will this work at 10x our current size? What breaks first?" More importantly, I look for solutions that become stronger with scale, not weaker. That's why I'm particularly excited about AI-driven solutions in iGaming - they're often designed to get better as they scale.

#8: Critical Mass

Success in iGaming often follows an invisible pattern: nothing seems to work until, suddenly, everything works. Understanding critical mass - the tipping point where momentum becomes self-sustaining - has been crucial to every major success I've seen in our industry.

I've experienced this personally with content creation. The first six months of writing about iGaming felt like shouting into the void. But I knew I was building toward critical mass. Each article, each insight shared, was adding weight until, eventually, the flywheel started turning on its own. Now, opportunities and connections appear almost effortlessly.

This model has immense practical value. When entering new markets or launching new products, don't expect immediate results. Instead, identify the key elements needed for critical mass - whether that's user numbers, brand awareness, or network effects - and systematically build toward them. Most importantly, don't quit just before the tipping point.

Final Thoughts…

The beauty of mental models isn't just in their individual power - it's in how they work together to help you see the world more clearly. They're like different lenses that reveal opportunities others miss and risks others don't see. 

But these aren't the only models worth knowing. Start with these eight, see how they change your decision-making, then build your own toolkit of mental models that resonate with your experiences. The deeper your understanding becomes, the more you'll find yourself making decisions with greater confidence and clarity.