#26: How to Be Wrong

And It's Matters More Than Being Right

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In today’s email:

  • The 15M Show: This week’s episodes focus on entering new markets

  • It’s okay to be wrong: I explore why being wrong is a skill that can help grow your iGaming business

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This Week’s Mastery

  • 📺 Pablo Ferreira discusses how to succeed in Brazil’s thriving iGaming market. Click here »

  • 📺 Dmitry Belianin discussed the best way to grow your brand in new markets. Click here »

How to Be Wrong (And Why It Matters More Than Being Right)

When I look around the industry, I see a fear that holds many businesses back. It's the fear of being wrong.. It's killing innovation, stifling growth, and creating cultures where people would rather stay quiet than speak up and risk being wrong.

We worship at the altar of data, build shrines to our KPIs, and treat our assumptions like gospel. But this expensive illusion of infallibility is killing innovation, and stifling growth. 

The result is lookalike gambling products or companies whose business model is to copy any product innovations that do emerge. But the most successful people and companies I know aren't the ones who are always right. They're the ones who get comfortable being wrong, learn fast, and adapt faster.

But here's what nobody tells you: being wrong is a skill. And, like any skill, you can get better at it. Not at being wrong more often (trust me, we're all plenty good at that already), but at handling it the right way.

The Three Types of Wrong (And Why They Matter)

Through my years of building companies and investing in others, I've noticed that being wrong usually falls into three distinct categories. Understanding these has helped me respond better when I inevitably stumble into each one (usually while holding a coffee and trying to look important in a board meeting).

First, there's Technical Wrong. This is when your data or assumptions are incorrect. Like when you're convinced your SEO strategy is crushing it, until someone points out that half your traffic is actually coming from a porn site redirect (true story, unfortunately).

Technical Wrong is the easiest to spot and fix because the numbers don't lie. Unless you're cooking them, in which case we need to have a different conversation.

Then there's Strategic Wrong. This is trickier because your data might be right, but your thinking is flawed. I see this all the time with operators entering new markets. They nail the numbers, understand the regulations, build the perfect product... and still fail spectacularly because they misread the cultural context.

Remember when European operators tried to copy-paste their model into India? How'd that work out? Strategic Wrong is like wearing swimming goggles in the shower - technically functional, contextually stupid.

Finally, there's Cultural Wrong - the most dangerous type. This is when your beliefs and biases blind you to reality. It's when you're so convinced that your way is the right way that you can't even see alternatives. I recently met with a CEO who insisted that brand marketing was a waste of money because "PPC is all that matters." His company's market share? Dropping faster than a blackhat operator's website during a Google core update.

The thing about these three types is that they often cascade. A technical wrong leads to strategic wrong, which reinforces cultural wrong. Before you know it, you're that guy at the conference still talking about how mobile gaming is just a fad.

Want to hear how to handle each type? That's coming up next...

The "Wrong Framework" (Because Everything Needs a Framework)

Since you're reading this, you're probably like me - someone who appreciates a good framework. So here's one I've developed for handling those moments when you realise you're wrong. I call it the 4R Framework because apparently, I'm not very creative with names.

Recognise: This is harder than it sounds. Your brain is wired to defend your existing beliefs. Want proof? Look at your reaction when someone suggests your favourite payment provider might not be the best. That defensive feeling? That's your ego trying to protect you from being wrong. The key is to look for signals: declining metrics, team frustration, or that gut feeling that something's off. If multiple people tell you something isn't working, they're probably not all idiots (shocking, I know).

Reset: This is the mental preparation phase. Take a deep breath. Being wrong doesn't make you stupid - it makes you human. Some of the smartest people I know are wrong all the time. The difference is they're okay with it. They've learned to separate their ego from their decisions.

Respond: Here's where most people fuck up. They either go into denial mode or overcorrect dramatically. The key is to take ownership quickly and clearly. No "mistakes were made" bullshit. Say "I was wrong" and immediately focus on the next steps. Look at how the best operators handle failed market entries - they don't waste time defending their original strategy or pointing fingers. They acknowledge the miss, pivot fast, and focus on solutions. I've seen companies burn millions in emerging markets because their leadership couldn't admit their approach wasn't working. Meanwhile, their competitors who quickly owned up to similar mistakes had already adapted and captured the market.

Reinforce: This is about creating systems to learn from being wrong. The smartest companies in our industry don't just move on from mistakes - they institutionalise the lessons. They turn every misstep into a blueprint for future success. Think about how many operators initially got crypto integration wrong, but those who studied those early failures now lead the market. It's not about dwelling on fuck-ups; it's about building a process that turns wrong into right. The best operators run regular reviews of what didn't work, document the lessons, and build them into their decision-making process. The best innovations often come from analysing the biggest failures.

Want to know how to build this into your company culture? Let's talk about that next...

Building a "Wrong-Positive" Culture (Yes, I Made Up That Term)

Let's be honest - most iGaming companies accidentally create cultures where admitting mistakes is about as welcome as a compliance audit. We talk about "failing fast" and "learning from mistakes," but when someone actually admits they're wrong? Suddenly everyone acts like they just farted in an elevator.

Here's how to change that (and why it matters more than ever in our industry).

First, it starts at the top. If you're a leader who can't admit when you're wrong, congratulations - you're breeding a company of liars. Strong words? Maybe. But I've seen too many companies implode because nobody dared to tell the emperor they weren't wearing any clothes. I’ve publicised many of my mistakes. I discuss it in team meetings. I turn it into a learning opportunity. Not because I enjoy public humiliation but because it permits others to do the same.

Second, reward early warning signals. The person who spots a problem isn't creating the problem - they're giving you a chance to fix it. When someone on my team comes to me early with "I think I got this wrong," they get praised, not punished. The only unforgivable mistake is hiding a mistake until it becomes a disaster.

Finally, build wrong-positive processes into your operations. If you’re moving fast, you’re going to break things. And if you’re moving fast, without overthinking every decision, you will be wrong sometimes. So when something does break, ask what went wrong, why it went wrong, and put in a system to reduce the risk of it recurring. Then, with that lesson, pick a new path. 

I truly believe that the future of iGaming belongs to companies that can move and adapt fastest. And you can't adapt if you're too busy pretending to be perfect.

Final thoughts

Money loves speed, and speed is at the core of everything that I try to do. But I can see how uncomfortable it makes people to move quickly. The reason for that discomfort is the fear of being wrong. It can become a form of procrastination… or worse, playing the game too safe so that you’re always right.

So remove the fear of being wrong, and watch momentum pick up in everything you do. 

As I discussed in last week’s case study of No Man’s Sky, you can be wrong in a monumental way and still recover from it.

Cheers to being wrong!

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